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BTC USD Elliot Wave Analysis

The most recent BTCUSD chart section displays the formation of a wave (W), which serves as the initial part of a potential double zigzag. Wave (W) may soon be unfolded as a standard A-B-C zigzag. Impulse A and correction B are completed, while impulse C is still under construction. Sub-waves [1]-[2]-[3]-[4] are formed within impulse C. Corrective sub-wave [4] looks like a double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y). Thus, shortly the price growth is expected within the final sub-wave [5] towards the level of 22845.
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Trading plan for BTCUSD today: Buy 20343.5, Take profit: 22845
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Euro tries to recover as eyes fixed on Christine Lagarde
Euro rose in European trade above two-week lows against dollar ahead of ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech later, which might offer clues on the future of European interest rates. The greenback gave up two-week highs on transient profit-taking ahead of US payrolls data, crucial for deciding the future path of US monetary policies.聽
EURUSD rose 0.5% to 0.9796, after closing down 0.7% yesterday, the fourth loss in a row, plumbing two-week lows at 0.9730 on bullish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
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Weekly聽Trading

Euro is still down 1.7% this week against dollar on track for the first weekly loss in three, and the largest such loss since mid-September. Such repeating losses led to renewed concerns about divergent monetary policies between Europe and the US, with the ECB remaining one of the slowest major central banks in monetary tightening, especially compared to the aggressive Fed.聽


Lagarde
ECB President Christine Lagarde is due to speak at an event hosted by the Bank of Estonia, and might offer some clues on future policies. Lagarde said on Tuesday that inflation remains extremely higher all over the euro zone and the ECB is still far from its inflation targets.聽

The Dollar
The dollar index fell 0.5% on Friday away from two-week highs at 113.15 against a basket of major rivals. Such a dip came ahead of the all-important payrolls report for October, expected to decide the pricing for a potential 0.75% rate hike by the Fed in December.聽
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BTCUSD - The pair is growing, but the long-term trend has not yet been determined

In general, the market continues to be influenced by a number of opposite factors that hinder the determination of a long-term trend. The pressure on the quotes of "digital gold" is still exerted by the monetary policy of the US Fed, whose officials confirmed this week that the cycle of interest rate hikes is far from over, and its pace is not expected to decrease in the near future. On the other hand, the potential for selling crypto assets also looks limited, since investors who want to part with them have already done so. In addition, hopes for the resumption of serious growth in the sector have recently been supported by expectations of active integration of the Twitter platform with the cryptocurrency market under new owner Elon Musk, which will expand the adoption of digital assets among citizens, as well as a successful outcome for Ripple Labs Inc. litigation against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). In this case, the possibilities of strict regulation of the cryptocurrency market by the department may be significantly reduced.

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Technically, the price has signs of forming a short-term ascending channel. With a breakdown of the 20235-20000 zone (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, Murray [4/8]), quotes will be able to leave it and continue to decline to the levels of 19375 (Murray [3/8]), 18750 (Murray [2/8]). The key for the "bulls" are the marks of 21250 (Murray [6/8]), consolidation above which will give the prospect of growth to the levels of 21875 (Murray [7/8]), 22500 (Murray [8/8]).

Resistance levels: 21250, 21875, 22500 | Support levels: 20235, 19375, 18750

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Dollar widens losses ahead of mid-term elections

Dollar fell against most major rivals on Monday as risk appetite oscillates, losses mount ahead of Congressional elections. Tomorrow, the mid-term elections for both houses of Congress will be launched, with the Republican Party expected to remove Democrats from their current majorities.

  • Important US inflation data will be released later this week, and will help investors predict future Fed steps.
  • Recent US data released last week showed the economy added 261 thousand jobs in October, while analysts expected an addition of 220 thousand.聽
  • US unemployment rose to 3.7% last month from 3.5% in September, while analysts expected 3.6%.聽
  • The Fed decided last week to raise interest rates by 75 basis points as expected.

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The dollar index fell 0.6% to 110.2 as of 18:25 GMT, with a session-high at 111.2, and a low at 110.1.

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Dollar Heads to more Losses Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

Dollar fell against most major rivals on Tuesday amid geopolitical uncertainty, coinciding with today's US mid-term Congressional elections. Most analysts expect the Republican party to win most seats in this election, moving aside the Democrats from their current majority. Later this week, important US inflation data will be released and will provide clues on the Federal Reserve's next monetary policies.

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The Federal Reserve decided last week to increase interest rates by 75 basis points as expected, the fourth such increase in a row to control inflation. The dollar index fell 0.4% to 109.6 as of 18:36 GMT, with an intraday high at 110.6, and a low at 109.3.聽

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ADA USD - the conflict between Binance and FTX continues to put pressure on the market

The cryptocurrency market suddenly found itself under serious pressure amid the conflict between the two largest digital platforms. At the beginning of the week, the head of Binance, Changpeng Zhao, announced the company's withdrawal from the investment agreement with FTX and the refusal to operate with its own token of this FTT exchange. This decision was caused by suspicions of overstating the balance sheet of Alameda Presearch. As a result, the FTX platform began to experience significant liquidity problems, investors began to withdraw funds, and the value of FTT sharply decreased, pulling the leading cryptocurrencies with it. After that, the management of both platforms had to realize that if the consequences of this situation were similar to the fall of the LUNA token, the entire digital asset sector would be greatly damaged, investors would lose interest in it or be wary of it, and regulators would make new efforts to limit the activities of the cryptocurrency community. As a result, Sam Bankman-Fried and Changpeng Zhao agreed to sell FTX assets to Binance exchange, which should ensure the preservation of its clients' funds. This decision, however, has not yet been able to stabilize the market and the fall in prices of leading assets continues.聽

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The XRP token reacted to the current situation with a decline and is now close to the support zone of 0.3418-0.3360 (Murray [2/8], October lows). In case of its breakdown, the decline will continue to the levels of 0.3173 (Murray [1/8]), 0.2929 (Murray [0/8]). The key for the "bulls" is the level of 0.3906 (Murray [4/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands), consolidation above which will give the prospect of growth to the levels of 0.4394 (Murray [6/8]), 0.4638 (Murray [7/8]).

Resistance levels: 0.3906, 0.4394, 0.4638 | Support levels: 0.3360, 0.3173, 0.2929

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ADAUSD -The development of the FTX crisis puts pressure on the market

The pressure on the digital asset sector continues to be exerted by the situation around the FTX exchange, which currently cannot provide coverage for client deposits, and its token can repeat the dynamics of the LUNA coin, losing about 90% of its value in a few days. Even yesterday, it seemed to the community members that a way out of the crisis had been found since the world's largest cryptocurrency platform Binance agreed to buy FTX assets, but then the company's CEO Changpeng Zhao abandoned these plans, which became the driver of the market's rapid decline. The exchange said that the problems associated with the misuse of FTX client funds were more serious than expected, so there were no opportunities to help the exchange. FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried has requested an additional 8.0B dollars in funding from investors to enable the withdrawal of user funds. If this amount is not received, then a declaration of bankruptcy will follow. Soon, this situation will negatively affect the entire digital sector and may provoke a serious outflow of investors and further price declines. According to analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co., the FTX crisis is developing too quickly, and market participants are not fully aware of its danger, and as soon as this happens, a cascading liquidation of open positions may begin.

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The trading instrument is trying to win back the lost positions but to resume serious growth, it needs to consolidate above 0.3906 (Murrey [0/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), and then the uptrend targets will be 0.4394 (Murrey [1/8], Fibonacci correction 50.0%) and 0.4670 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). After the consolidation below 0.3085 (annual lows), the decline will continue to 0.2440 (Murrey [2/8] for H4).

Resistance levels: 0.3906, 0.4394, 0.4670 | Support levels: 0.3085, 0.2440

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Sentiment boosted in markets after US inflation data

Global financial markets were boosted after US inflation data that showed a slowdown in prices in October. It's the fourth consecutive monthly slowdown in consumer prices, asserting a move away from record 9.1% inflation in June, as the Fed's aggressive policy tightening moves finally show their impact. Bets on a 0.50% rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December rose from 67% to 85%, while bets on a 0.75% rate hike tumbled from 33% to 15%.

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Inflation Data
US consumer prices rose 7.7% in October y/y, less than the expected 7.9%, and down from 8.2% in the previous reading. Core prices, excluding food and fuel, rose 6.3%, less than the expected 6.5%, and less than 6.6%5 in the previous reading.

Global Markets
The dollar index slumped over 1.5% to 108.75, the lowest since September 13 against a basket of major rivals. Gold prices rose 1.75%, hitting two-month highs at $1,737 an ounce on track for the largest weekly profit since February.聽

Most European stock rose to two-month highs while Wall Street stock futures rallied as well ahead of the official opening.聽

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Euro jumps to four-month high on German bonds

Euro rose in European trade against dollar after a short hiatus from gains, hitting four-month highs as two-year German yields hit 14-year highs ahead of expected ECB policy tightening. The dollar plumbed fresh three-month lows ahead of US producer prices data, important for gauging inflation in the economy. EURUSD rose over 0.8% to 1.0412, the highest since July 5, after closing down 0.3% yesterday, the first loss in three days after marking the largest weekly profit since March 2020.


German Yields

US two-year German yields rose over 4% after a short hiatus from gains, almost touching 14-year highs at 2.252%. It comes amid developments in the German bonds market as the ECB is expected to aggressively tighten policies and close the gap with the Fed.聽

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The Dollar

The dollar index fell over 0.7% to three-month lows at 106.09 against a basket of major rivals, following the largest two-day loss since early 2020. The selloff comes ahead of US producer prices data later today, expected to provide further clues on prospects of rate hikes in December. Markets are pricing in a 89% chance of a 0.5% rate hike in December, and just an 11% chance of a 0.75% hike.

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Euro jumps to four-month high on German bonds

Euro rose in European trade against dollar after a short hiatus from gains, hitting four-month highs as two-year German yields hit 14-year highs ahead of expected ECB policy tightening. The dollar plumbed fresh three-month lows ahead of US producer prices data, important for gauging inflation in the economy. EURUSD rose over 0.8% to 1.0412, the highest since July 5, after closing down 0.3% yesterday, the first loss in three days after marking the largest weekly profit since March 2020.


German Yields

US two-year German yields rose over 4% after a short hiatus from gains, almost touching 14-year highs at 2.252%. It comes amid developments in the German bonds market as the ECB is expected to aggressively tighten policies and close the gap with the Fed.聽

dxy.png

The Dollar

The dollar index fell over 0.7% to three-month lows at 106.09 against a basket of major rivals, following the largest two-day loss since early 2020. The selloff comes ahead of US producer prices data later today, expected to provide further clues on prospects of rate hikes in December. Markets are pricing in a 89% chance of a 0.5% rate hike in December, and just an 11% chance of a 0.75% hike.

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Euro gives up four-month high on profit-taking

Euro fell in European trade off four-month highs on track for the first loss in three days on active profit-taking, while two-year German yields fell. Dollar rebounded from multi-month highs after strong data on US retail sales in October following remarks by Fed officials which asserted the continued efforts to bring inflation down. EURUSD fell over 0.3% to 1.0359, with a session-high at 1.0398, after rising 0.45% on Wednesday, the second profit in a row, marking four-month highs at 1.0481.聽

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Such gains came as concerns about a wider conflict in eastern Europe subsided as the NATO stated the recent missile that hit Poland was probably a mistaken shot from the Ukrainian air defense force.


German Yields

Two-year German treasury yields fell over 0.6% today away from recent 14-year highs, in turn pressuring euro. A recent spike in yields to 14-year highs at 2.252% played a major role in recent extensive gains by the euro as the ECB prepares more aggressive policy tightening to come.


The Dollar

The dollar index rose 0.3% on Thursday away from three-month lows at 105.34, on track for first profit in three sessions against a basket of major rivals. The gains came after data showed US retail sales rose past estimates in October.

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