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US100

• Markets remained nervous on the final trading day of the week with major European and US indices pulling back
• Top blue chips indices from Europe dropped over 1% lower while major Wall Street indices, like S&P 500 and Nasdaq, are trading around 1.0-1.5% lower on the day
• Flight to safety can be spotted on the markets with money flowing to precious metals and bonds
• Gold is trading over 3%  higher on the day as short- and long-term US yields plunge with psychological $2,000 level being just 1% away
• Markets are pricing around 60% chance of Fed hiking rates by 25 basis points next week and around 40% of keeping them unchanged
• USD is one of the worst performing G10 currencies today
• In spite of yesterday's liquidity boost from major central banks, share price of First Republic Bank saw only short-lived relief and is plunging 25% today
• Credit Suisse remains in the center of attention in Europe with bank calling its CFO teams to work over the week and look for 'scenarios for the bank'
• Also, media reports saying that major banks are limiting trading with Credit Suisse are mounting. Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale are said to be the latest to restrict trading with CS
• Energy commodities are pulling back amid an overall increase in risk aversion. Brent and WTI are trading 2% lower and is heading for the biggest weekly drop since April 2022 while US natural gas prices plunge 7%
• Downward pressure on US natural gas prices is further magnified by new weather forecast for the United States that hint at near- or above-average temperatures in key heating regions over the next 2 weeks
• University of Michigan consumer sentiment for March missed expectations significantly, dropping from 67.0 to 63.4 (exp. 67.0). Both current situation and expectations subindices missed estimates significantly
• In spite of risk-off moods seen across most financial markets, cryptocurrencies are having a great day. Bitcoin jumps 6% and trades in the $26,500 area

 

 

Nasdaq-100 (US100) failed to sustain bullish momentum and break above the 12,750 pts resistance zone. The index is pulling back today as concerns over the condition of the US and European continue to linger over markets. However, Nasdaq-100 drops the least among major Wall Street indices due to an almost non-existent share of the banking sector in the index.

 

 

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AUDJPY

• Swiss National Bank announced that UBS will buy Credit Suisse in a government-arranged deal. UBS will purchase CS for 3 billion CHF and will get additional 9 billion CHF in government guarantees. Apart from that, 10 billion CHF in additional liquidity will also be provided
• Bank shares underperformed in early trading on Monday as UBS-CS deal includes writing down of AT1 bonds to zero. As those bonds have notional value of around 16 billion CHF, there concerns over exposure of other banks
• ECB President Lagarde hopes that the rescue deal will be enough to calm turmoil in European banking sector. Lagarde also said that ECB is ready to support European banks with loans should they require it
• Fed Chair Powell and US Treasury Secretary Yellen issued a joint statement stressing that US banking and financial systems are resilient
• Fed along with 5 other central banks (ECB, BoJ, BoE, SNB and BoC) announced actions to boost USD liquidity. Those 6 central banks will now hold daily auctions for USD through swap lines, instead of weekly auctions as it was before
• Bank of Japan said that there were no bids in a daily FX swap auction for USD today, in a sign that liquidity crunch is not as severe as feared
• US and European index futures launched new week's trade with small bullish price gaps. However, those gains were quickly erased and now both DAX and S&P 500 futures trade more or less flat compared Friday's cash closing prices
• Indices from Asia-Pacific traded lower today. Nikkei and S&P/ASX 200 dropped 1.4%, Kospi traded 0.6% lower, Nifty 50 plunged 1.2%
• Indices from China traded lower with Hang Seng (-3.4%) being top underperformer
• RBA Assistant Governor Kent said that Australian banks are resilient. Kent also said that RBA will take into account financial conditions while making next interest rate decision
• Goldman Sachs slashed its 1-year ahead Brent price forecast from $100 to $94 per barrel
• People's Bank of China left 1- and 5-year rates unchanged at 3.65 and 4.30%, respectively. Decision was in-line with market expectations
• Risk-off moods can be on cryptocurrency markets at the beginning of a new week - Bitcoin drops 2%, Ethereum trades 2.6% lower and Dogecoin dips 1.9%
• Energy commodities drop at the start of a new week - WTI drops over 2% and looks towards a test of the $65 per barrel area
• Precious metals trade mixed - gold gains 0.7%, silver adds 0.2% and platinum drops 0.6%
• CHF and JPY are the best performing major currencies while AUD and NZD lag the most

 

AUDJPY, a well-known risk barometer, is taking a hit at the beginning of new week's trade. The pair is attempting to make a break below a mid-term support zone ranging above 88.00. Note that similar attempts were made last week but all of them failed.

 

 

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S & P

Also news that JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon is leading discussions with other CEOs of other large US banks in an effort to provide further support, including potentially converting their $30 billion in deposits into a capital injection, only slightly calmed investors' nerves. According to Wall Street Journal, preliminary discussions have been focused on ways that the banks can boost the beleaguered banks capital. Also in play is a potential investment by the banks themselves.

 

Also according to CNBC, JPMorgan Chase is advising  First Republic Bank on strategic alternatives,  one of which is capital raise which could dilute current shareholders. A sale of the bank is also taken into consideration.

 

 

First Republic (FRC.US) stock has been in free fall recently.  Last week alone, a troubled San Francisco-based lender lost nearly 70.0% of its market value. Sell-off accelerated in pre-market, however sellers failed to retest all-time low at $9.00 and buyers managed to erase some of the losses in the evening. Nevertheless, the main sentiment remains bearish and only a break above the local resistance zone around $42.25 could let to a bigger upward correction.

 

 

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