official HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 14th September 2023.

Market Update – September 14 – A hotly contested day ahead!

CPI was a little hotter than expected, but not enough to alter expectations that the FOMC will skip hiking rates at its meeting next Wednesday. And the report did not change views that the door is open for a tightening in November, but it still not any more than a 50-50 bet. Treasuries went into the CPI data priced for upside risks and Yields spiked on the 0.6% jump in headline and the 0.3% gain in the core, which resulted in respective y/y rates of 3.7% and 4.3%. However, yields quickly dropped back and closed richer on the session amid short covering. Today, Asian stocks inched higher as investors shrugged off stronger than expected US inflation figures and anticipate the ECB decision.



The ECB meeting takes place today with reports that the updated staff projections will push the 2023 inflation forecast above 3% having boosted bets of another 25 bp hike. A hawkish pause would not be a surprise, but we think there is a slightly higher chance that the ECB will move again this week, especially considering the likely upward revision to the inflation forecast and the most recent rise in energy prices.
 

• FX – USDIndex is at 104.60. EURUSD mixed but lower in EU session at 1.0733 from 1.0754 and USDJPY holds above 147.00 floor, eyeing 148.
• Stocks – The JPN225 surged 1.4% to 33,168.10, US500 edged up to 4534, US100 jumped to August ceiling and the US30 failed to extend above 35k, as Stocks and bonds were supported ahead of ECB and US data.
• Stocks of airlines were some of the biggest losers in the US500 after a couple warned of the hit to profits they’re taking because of higher costs. United Airlines sank by 3.8% and 2.8% for Delta Air Lines. On the flipside, Amazon climbed 2.6%, Microsoft gained 1.3%, and Nvidia rose 1.4%. Moderna rallied 3.2% after it reported encouraging results from a flu vaccine trial.
• Commodities – Oil well supported as markets focused on the prospect of sustained supply tightness this year. USOIL is at $88.60, recovering from $87.60 lows.

Today: ECB rate decision & Press Conference, US Retail Sales and PPI.



Key Movers: XAGUSD (-1.18%) broke 5-day range, extending the September’s downleg, with attention turning to 22 and 21 Support level.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Edited September 14 by HFM

[HFM]

Date: 16th September 2023.

Events to Look Out For Next Week.

Next week will be one marked by multiple decisions by the world’s major Central Banks, the Fed in the first place. PMI data will then give colour to the expected strength of the economy in the coming months, while we will continue to keep our eyes firmly on prices, after the impromptu rise we saw in the US, for example.

Tuesday – 19 September 2023

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• Harmonized / Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Next week will be one marked by multiple decisions by the world’s major Central Banks, the Fed in the first place. PMI data will then give colour to the expected strength of the economy in the coming months, while we will continue to keep our eyes firmly on prices, after the impromptu rise we saw in the US, for example.
• Canadian CPI (CAD, GMT 12.30) – Inflation in Canada is at similar levels to the US, even lower: 3.2% and 3.3% in July on the headline and core components respectively. But the former has risen again in the latest report, and consistently from +2.8% in June: will it follow in its neighbour’s footsteps and mark a second consecutive rise? Expectations are for a +3.8% rise in the headline component.

Wednesday – 20 September 2023

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• PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNH, GMT 01:15) – China’s central bank has been very active this year in trying to stimulate the economy with various instruments and has already tweaked various interest rates and margins requirements from banks several times: in August the key one-year loan prime rate was lowered from 3.55% to 3.45% where it now stands. It remains to be seen whether the bank will take a break after the latest vaguely positive data.
• UK CPI, PPI, Retail Price Index (GBP, GMT 06:00) –Prices in the UK continue to grow at the highest levels among advanced economies: in July y/y CPI was +6.8%, Core CPI +6.9%, Retail Prices +9%. The economy seems to be languishing in stagflation but this is not what policy makers would like to see, as they expect to see numbers close to 5% by the end of the year. Expectations are for a rise of the headline component to +7.1% and a slowdown in the core one, to +6.8%, while RPI is forecasted at +9.3% y/y.
• FED Interest Rated Decision and FOMC Press Conference (USD, from GMT 10:00) -Little drama is expected out of next week’s FOMC. The official rate is in the 5.25% – 5.50% range and the market continues to price in very little risk for a hike next week. Chances for a 25 bp rate hike in November are still on the cards amid sticky core inflation and a still tight labor market. Very important will be subsequent comments from the ever-balanced Jerome Powell, who will perhaps explain the bank’s view on prices that have been rising again over the past two months while growth and jobs seem to be holding strong.

Thursday – 21 September 2023

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• SNB Interest Rated Decision and Monetary Policy Assessment (CHF, GMT 07:30) –Earlier this month, economists at Credit Suisse/UBS were saying the SNB could raise the current 1.75% level even in the event that the neighboring ECB paused, citing the usual price fight but also the interest rate differential with the eurozone. Instead, Madame Lagarde raised and even though Inflation is actually below 2%, the Swiss bank’s projections suggest caution and that a 25 bps hike could be in the cards.
• BOE Interest Rate Decision, Minutes and Monetary Policy Summary (GBP, GMT 11:00) –SONIA futures data seem to take it for granted that the BOE will raise at this meeting from the current 5.25% to 5.50%: but most important will be to understand the internal divisions and alternatives on the bench for the bank that is perhaps facing the most difficult situation, with a stagnant economy and prices running hot. Economists polled by Reuters think 2 members will vote for keeping the rate unchanged, up from just 1 at the last meeting.
• US Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales (USD, GMT 12:30, 14:00) –The US labor market has shown that it is still very tight despite some slowdown that was most noticeable in the ADP data and the pickup in the unemployment rate (+3.8% in August from +3.5%), actually due to a rise in the Labor Force Participation Rate. This week, it is expected that Initial Claims will rise by just 5k to +225k. While mortgage demand has sunk to a 28-year low given the high rates, existing home sales are also suffering (+4070k in July down from +4160k in June) in contrast to new home sales, which continue to climb (+714k). Two more data points to see how strong the US locomotive is. Expectations are for 4100k Existing Home Sales.

Friday – 22 September 2023

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• BOJ Interest Rated Decision and Monetary Policy Statement (JPY , GMT early morning time, not disclosed) –Yen weakness, a still negative official rate (-0.1%), recent changes to the YCC on the 10-year, Ueda statements, prices and wages that finally seem to be rising consistently toward the bank’s target bring into question whether or not the process of monetary policy normalization from an ultra loose stance has really begun. With the USDJPY in the 148 area, an event definitely not to be missed. No changes are expected for the Official Interest Rate.
• French, German, European HCOB PMIs, UK S&P/CIPS PMIs (EUR, GBP, starting GMT 07:15) – Yen weakness, a still negative official rate (-0.1%), recent changes to the YCC on the 10-year, Ueda statements, prices and wages that finally seem to be rising consistently toward the bank’s target bring into question whether or not the process of monetary policy normalization from an ultra loose stance has really begun. With the USDJPY in the 148 area, an event definitely not to be missed. No changes are expected for the Official Interest Rate.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 18th September 2023.

Market Update – September 18 – Central Banks Week kicks off


A week that will be marked by meetings and decisions of practically all the world’s most important central banks is off to a slow start, with US futures fractionally up (+0.08% / +0.15%) after Friday’s drubbing. It was a decisive day for the weekly trend, sending both the US500 and US100 into negative territory for the second time in a row: only the US30 managed to close the week at +0.1%. The tech sector was the hardest hit, -2.2%, led by the Oracle debacle, -10%. On the other front, Utilities outperformed, +2.8%. This was on Friday, when the Nasdaq sank -1.75% and the US500 posted -1.22%: two factors contributed to this bad performance. First, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which came out at 67.7, below expectations and well below its historical average, which is close to 86. This Index accounts for 2/3 of the US economy and is therefore a valuable indicator of the overall state of affairs there. The other major event that certainly helped the declines to be heavy was the UAW strike, for the first time simultaneously at the Ford, GM and Stellantis plants: the demands are for wage increases of up to 40% and the impact of such news on the perception of future inflation can be worrying. Today is poor in data, but from tonight Central Banks Week kicks off with the minutes of the latest RBA meeting and from Wednesday night onwards all the big central banks will cascade. The FED decision will be made on Wednesday evening.
 

Since the 3rd week of August, Antipodeans + CNH have relatively outperformed

 

• FX – USDIndex -0.12% at 104.86; Antipodeans are relatively stronger with AUDUSD +0.23% and NZDUSD +0.31%, this comes also on the back of USDCNH <7.30 (7.28 now). GBPUSD sits at 1.24, EURUSD +0.13% at 1.0673.
• Stocks – US Futures fractionally higher (US500 + 0.15%, US100 +0.22%, US30 +0.12%); GER40 futures are turning negative right now (-0.03% at 15869), CAC is -0.05%. Last Friday, META and NVDA sunk >-3%, Microsoft -2.50%.
• Commodities – USOil is trading close to 10-month high at $91.60, UKOil puts $95 in sight.
• GOLD – +0.32% at $1929, XAG +0.73% at $23.20.

Today: highlights include US NAHB Housing Market Index, Bundesbank Monthly Report, remarks from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, ECB de Guindos & Panetta.

Key Movers: XAUUSD (+0.22% @ $1928.09) is in a very tight range between its 50d and 200d MAs and close to the upper bound of a descending channel.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 19th September 2023.

Market Update – September 19 – Slow markets before 5 Major Central Banks decisions.



US Stocks barely budged yesterday, with all indices ending the session with tiny gains; volumes were muted too. On the other side of the ocean, we witnessed substantial losses among European indices, probably also weighed down by the ECB’s decision last week. The worst of all was the FRA40 after one of the largest domestic investment banks, Societe Generale, pledged to cut costs and tumbled 12.05%. It is not the first major investment bank to make similar pronouncements lately, with Goldman and Morgan Stanley planning to adjust their workforce next.

Back to America, strikes are hitting the economy with 4.1 million labor hours lost in August, the most in 23 years: perhaps another reason why the indices’ rally has come to a standstill with the Nasdaq – for instance – remaining at the level of three months ago. To be fair, yesterday the good performance of Apple and Meta helped it to gain +0.15%. Technology was the best sector for the day, along with Energy: however, it is striking to see how the latter has been the star performer in recent months – led by the oil rally – with the ETF tracking the sector (XLE) up 14.92% in three months versus a paltry +1% for the US500.

The RBA minutes this morning held few surprises and the AUD, like the USD, is little moved. Rates continue to push slowly upwards and the 2-year is close to its March high of 5.066%. The market believes that the Fed will not move tomorrow – 99% odds – but the Dot Plot predicts another hike this year: GS is convinced that this is just a ”bluff”. We shall see.
 

• FX – USDIndex flat at 104.86; AUDUSD -0.04% @ 0.6433, GBPUSD < 1.24 (1.2377, EURUSD -0.12% @ 1.0679. USDJPY just shy of 148 and USDCNH back at 7.30.
• Stocks – US Futures are inching lower (US500 -0.12%, US100 -0.25%, US30 -0.09%); EU futures are adding to yesterday’s losses. AAPL +1.69%, Square’s and Lonza’s CEOs to depart the companies (latter one -14%), second interesting IPO in a couple of days with Instacart valued $10B, 75% less than the previous Private VC valuation.
• Commodities – USOil +0.08% at $92.27, UKOil hit $95, now trading at $94.69, Wheat, Corn close to 2023 lows.
• GOLD – -0.13% @ $1931.

Today: Highlights include European HICP, Core HICP, US Housing Starts, Canadian CPI.



Interesting Mover: FRA40 -1.39% @7276 after testing the top of the channel with a perfect spinning top on high volumes, fell hard yesterday led by the slump of one of the largest French banks (SocGen -12%).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 20th September 2023.

Market Update – September 20 – FED will stay on hold; Dot Plot, SEP are key.


In a day that will be centred around the Fed’s deliberations this evening, and above all the quarterly economic projections, the new dot plot and Jerome Powell’s press conference, we start with China where the PBoC just now left its benchmark rates unchanged, with the one-year and five-year loan prime rates at 3.45% and 4.2% respectively. The Central Bank touted the strength of the national economy and said it has ample policy room as analysts bet on future rate cuts. Still in Asia, the Japanese trade balance fell 66.7% in August, coming in at 930.5 billion yen compared with the 2.79 trillion yen deficit a year ago: a smaller-than-expected but still 17.8% drop in imports contributed to this improvement. Yesterday saw the USD suffer badly up to the US open, with the USDIndex at -0.4% at one point and particularly weak against currencies such as the CAD, before recovering most of its losses and closing flat: the EURUSD was back below 1.07 as was the Cable below 1.24. US yields returned to new highs across the curve, on the 2, 5 and 10 year, the latter two being the highest levels since 2007. Stocks and indices closed in the red, led by the US30.

Another extremely interesting movement was that of oil, which saw Brent crude come within a hair’s breadth of $96 and Crude above $92, at very strong resistance levels tested several times last year, before falling back profusely: at the moment, the US blend is trading at $90.35.
 

FED’s current Dot Plot, representing Members’ rates forecasts

Tonight is the Fed meeting and there is a 99% probability that the official rate will remain in the 5.25%-5.50% range. But September is also the meeting where the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will be renewed and the new Dot Plot will be released: these will be key points to understand what will happen next. On the other hand, it is possible that Powell will do everything he can during the conference to reiterate to the markets that they should not think they know what he and the other board members will do in the coming months.
 

• FX – USDIndex flat at 104.82; EURUSD +0.05% @ 1.0685, GBPUSD -0.30% @ 1.2355, USDCAD +0.06% @ 1.3456, USDJPY flat @ 147.88, USDCNH 7.308.
• Stocks – US Futures are lower to flat (US500 -0.04%, US100 -0.10%, US30 +0.01%); GER40 is +0.10%, FRA40 -0.09%. EV maker TIO tumbled -12%.
• Commodities – USOil -1.11% @ $90.44, UKOil is trading at $93.44 after getting close to hitting $96 last night.
• GOLD – flat @ $1931.

Today: Highlights include UK CPI, PPI, Retail PI (JUST OUT, much better than expected), German PPI, US Mortgage applications, EIA Weekly Oil Stocks Change, FED INTEREST RATE DECISION, FOMC ECONOMIC PROJECTION & PRESS CONFERENCE.



Interesting Mover: USOil -1.11% @ $90.44, perfectly pulled back after reaching a key resistance level at the $92.20 area, drew a spinning top and is dumping overbought levels on the RSI.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 21st September 2023.

Market Update – September 21 – Stocks fade, USD up as CBs spring on.


It was Fed Day and it did not disappoint. As universally expected, the result of the FOMC was a “hawkish hold.”

But we and the markets got a little more than bargained for as Chair Powell and the FOMC revealed an even more restrictive policy stance than anticipated, and clearly signaled a higher for longer stance. The markets got the message loud and clear. Stocks and bond markets are under pressure, after the Fed decision hit risk appetite. The FOMC kept rates on hold yesterday, but signalled that another hike is in the cards later in the year.

Switzerland’s SNB surprised by keeping rates on hold. Expectations had been for another 25 bp hike, but after the recent drop in inflation, the SNB decided to keep policy settings unchanged. The statement stressed that “the significant tightening of monetary policy over recent quarters is countering remaining inflation pressure”, although it left the door open to another hike by saying that “it cannot be ruled out that further tightening of monetary policy may become necessary”. The central bank’s new forecasts put inflation at 2.2% in 2023 and 2024, before a drop to 1.9% in 2025.
 

• FX – USDIndex has lifted to 105.35 on the Fed outlook and also support from haven demand. It holds above the 105 mark for a fifth straight session. EURUSD extended to 1.0616 lows, while GBPUSD broke 1.2300, breaching its 6-month support level, ahead of BOE rate decision. The Yen struggled and USDJPY lifted to 148.45. It has currently pulled back down to 148.15.
• Stocks – JPN225 and ASX lost -1.4% overnight, after a lower close on Wall Street and European as well as US futures are also in the red. The US100 closed -1.53% in the red, with the US500 down -0.94% while the US30 was off -0.22%.
• Commodities – USOil under $89 per barrel, as the changed rate outlook weighed on demand expectations.
• Gold has continued to trade lower at day’s low $1924.10 as markets wait for the BOE announcement.

Today: BOE Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference, US Initial Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, ECB President Lagarde speech.

Interesting Mover: CHFJPY has lost -1.03% so far today after the SNB announcement.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.