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2023 Market Forecast by Solidecn.com

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Crude Oil - The price is in a correction, a fall is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the price of the asset will fall to the area of 72.50 – 62.55. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 100.28.

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ADAUSD - Murray analysis

Currently, the price is trying to leave the descending channel and is actively testing the 0.3173 mark (Fibo retracement 23.6%, Murray level [5/8]). If consolidated above it, the growth will be able to continue to the levels of 0.3662 (Fibo retracement 38.2%, Murray level [7/8]), 0.3906 (Murray level [8/8]). The key for the "bears" is the level of 0.2685 (Murray level [3/8]), supported by the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, with consolidation below it, the resumption of the decline to the area of 0.2441 (Murray level [2/8]) and 0.2197 (Murray level [1/8]) is possible.

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Resistance levels: 0.3173, 0.3662, 0.3906 | Support levels: 0.2685, 0.2441, 0.2197
 

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EURUSD Gets New Positive Signal 

The EURUSD pair resumes its positive trading after the temporary decline that it witnessed in the previous sessions, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bullish trend, motivated by the positive overlapping signal provided by stochastic now, waiting to visit 1.0915 as a next main target.
 
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The EMA50 continues to support the suggested bullish wave, which will remain valid as long as 1.0745 level remains intact. The expected trading range for today is between 1.0790 support and 1.0950 resistance.
 
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BTCUSD - Monetary factors support the growth of "digital gold"

The main support for the entire cryptocurrency sector was provided by monetary factors. After the release on Thursday of the December data on US consumer inflation, which recorded a new slowdown in its growth rate from 7.1% to 6.5% on an annualized basis, investors became stronger in the opinion that the US Fed will also adjust the rate of interest rate hike to 25.0 percentage points, putting pressure on the quotes of the national currency. As a result, the positions of alternative assets, including digital ones, have strengthened. It should be noted that the current trend is in line with the forecasts of the well-known crypto enthusiast, the head of Galaxy Digital, Michael Novogratz, who at the beginning of last year said that the digital asset market would restore positive dynamics after the American regulator retreats from the policy of sharp monetary tightening. Further positive for the sector was the news that the FTX bankruptcy team was able to restore access to the company's assets of about 5.0B dollars, which could provide investors with a significant part of the losses.
 
However, despite a number of positive factors, the further recovery of BTC positions does not look sustainable, as the position of the cryptocurrency industry as a whole remains difficult. The decline in trading volumes on the leading centralized exchanges continues, in December alone, the number of spot trading decreased by 42.8% at once, and of futures – by 47.6% compared to November. The difficult financial situation caused by a protracted fall in prices last year is forcing companies to optimize costs and reduce staff. Thus, the Coinbase platform announced plans to lay off 950 employees, which is about 20.0% of the staff. Cryptocurrency company ConsenSys intends to lay off about 100 employees, and cryptocurrency wallet operator Blockchain.com – 110. In addition, additional problems for the industry may be created by a new lawsuit by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against the Gemini site and the Genesis credit service, which, according to the regulator, are guilty of unregistered sale of securities to investors.
 
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Technically, the price is testing the resistance zone of 21000 - 21250 (Murray level [+1/8], Fibo retracement 61.8%), consolidation above it will give the prospect of further growth to the levels of 22500 (Murray level [+2/8]) and 25000 (Murray level [0/8] for W1). If the level of 20000 (Murray level [8/8], Fibo retracement 50.0%) is broken down, the decline will be able to resume to the area of 19100 (Fibo retracement 38.2%) and 17830 (Fibo retracement 23.6%).
 
Resistance levels: 21250, 22500, 25000 | Support levels: 20000, 19100, 17830
 
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USDCHF Loses Momentum

The USDCHF pair fluctuates at the EMA50, noticing that stochastic loses its positive momentum clearly, waiting to motivate the price to resume the negative trading that its targets begin by breaking 0.9215 to open the way to visit 0.9150 followed by 0.9100 levels.
 
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Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period unless breaching 0.9330 and holding above it. The expected trading range for today is between 0.9170 support and 0.9300 resistance.
 
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AUDUSD Awaits more Rise

The AUDUSD pair faced temporary negative pressure in the previous sessions to lean on the intraday support line that appears on the chart and begins rising now, accompanied by witnessing positive signals through stochastic, waiting to motivate the price to provide more positive trades on the intraday and short term basis, reminding you that our next target is located at 0.7080.
 
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Therefore, our bullish overview will remain valid conditioned by the price stability above 0.6915. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6920 support and 0.7040 resistance.
 
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GBPUSD Technical Analysis

The GBPUSD pair shows calm trades since morning, and AC provides the positive signals, waiting to resume the bullish trend that targets 1.2440 level as a next main station, reminding you that the continuation of the bullish wave depends on the price stability above 1.2150.

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The expected trading range for today is between 1.2130 support and 1.2290 resistance.
 

 

 
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ETHUSD - Technical analysis
 
The price left the sideways range of 1325 – 1090, where it had been trading for about two months, and reached 1566.40. Further growth of quotations is possible around November highs to 1650, the breakdown of which may cause an increase around 1875 (Murrey level [3/8] for W1). If 1500 (Murrey level [8/8]) is broken down, the decline may resume to 1375 (Murrey level [6/8], Fibonacci retracement 50.0%) and 1312.5 (Murrey level [5/8], Fibonacci retracement 38 .2%, the middle line of Bollinger bands).
 
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Resistance levels: 1650, 1875 | Support levels: 1500, 1375, 1312.5
 
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USDCAD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, the upward fifth wave of the higher level 5 develops, within which the wave (3) of 5 forms. Now, the wave 5 of (3) is developing, within which the wave i of 5 has appeared, a local correction has ended as the wave ii of 5, and the formation of the wave iii of 5 is starting. 

If the assumption is correct, the USDCAD pair will grow to the area of 1.3978 – 1.45. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3315.

usdcad.png
 

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USDCHF - Growth is possible

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 develops, within which the upward first wave (1) of 3 formed, and a downward correction ended as the second wave (2) of 3. Now, the wave C of (2) has ended, and the development of the upward wave (3) of 3 has started, within which the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) has formed. 
 
If the assumption is correct, the USDCHF pair will grow to the area of 0.99 – 1.0147. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9164.
 
usdchf.png
 
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AUDUSD - Australian construction sector remains under pressure

Significant problems in the national economy constrain the positive dynamics of the Australian currency: another negative signal came from the real estate sector, where the Q4 total volume of commissioning of new housing decreased by 5.2% to 45.489K, and the indicator in the private sector – by 4.9 % to 28.895K. Construction in other housing projects fell by 5.2%, amounting to 15.618K, and the total cost of work performed in the industry increased by 1.5%, reaching 30.6B Australian dollars. After the June reversal of the trend, the indicators of the construction sector are declining, approaching the historical lows of the pandemic 2020.

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On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument is moving within a narrow upward corridor, rising in the direction of the resistance line, and the technical indicators strengthen the buy signal.

Resistance levels: 0.7048, 0.7257 | Support levels: 0.6915, 0.6719
 

 
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Crude Oil - OPEC expects growth in global oil production

According to OPEC estimates, the trend for the recovery of quotations of "black gold" can be continued against the background of an increase in production. According to preliminary data, by the end of 2022, production will increase by 1.9M barrels per day by countries outside the cartel, and the forecast for 2023 suggests that the indicator will add another 1.5M barrels per day, reaching 67.2M barrels. It is expected that the USA, Canada and Brazil will remain the leaders in the production of "black gold", while in Norway and Thailand it will decrease slightly.

According to Bloomberg, despite the restrictions, Russian oil supplies by sea last week reached a maximum since April 2022 of 3.8M barrels per day. China, India and Turkey stand out among the main destinations, while Bulgaria remains the only port of shipment to the EU.

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On the daily chart, the price is trading in a narrow sideways range, moving away from the lows of the year at the level of 70.5. The technical indicators confirm the high probability of continued corrective growth, strengthening the buy signal.

Support levels: 78.44, 70.5 | Resistance levels: 83.28, 92.2
 

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XRPUSD - The pair has stabilized after a week of growth

In general, investor enthusiasm has somewhat weakened, and the cryptocurrency market has stabilized in anticipation of new drivers of movement. Currently, further price growth is hindered by uncertainty over the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit against Ripple. Recall that the regulator insists that the XRP token is an unregistered security, which the company does not agree with. Now the parties have submitted to the court the final versions of their arguments, but no decision has been made yet. The cryptocurrency community estimates Ripple's chances of a successful outcome of the case as high, but even in this case, new lawsuits by the department against the company are not excluded.

Investors are also concerned about the new management of the bankrupt FTX exchange gaining access to assets worth 5.5B dollars, a certain share of which are XRP tokens. It is assumed that they will be used to compensate customers for losses and can be sold, which will put additional pressure on the pair.  

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The key for the "bulls" is the level of 0.3906 (Murray level [8/8]), consolidation above which will give the prospect of further growth to the area of 0.4150 (Murray level [+2/8]) and 0.4330 (Fibo retracement 23.6%). The resumption of a serious decline should be expected when the 0.3540 mark is broken down (Murray level [5/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands), and in this case the quotes will be able to reach 0.3296 (Murray level [3/8]), 0.3174 (Murray level [2/8]).

Resistance levels: 0.3906, 0.4150, 0.4330 | Support levels: 0.3540, 0.3296, 0.3174
 

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NZDUSD Touches the Second Target

The NZDUSD pair managed to touch our second waited target at 0.6510 and bounced downwards clearly from there, to test the intraday bullish channel’s support line now, accompanied by witnessing positive signals through stochastic, waiting to motivate the price to resume the bullish wave that its next target reaches 0.6600.

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Therefore, we suggest the continuation of the main positive scenario, noting that failing to consolidate above 0.6415 will put the price under additional negative pressure that targets 0.6345 followed by 0.6275 levels as next main stations. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6360 support and 0.6500 resistance

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Shares of Tesla are at 128.

On the daily chart, the price is trying to consolidate within the corrective trend, trading within the corridor with dynamic boundaries of 139 – 126. On the four-hour chart, the upside potential is relatively small, despite holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci initial retracement at 125. 
 
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Soon, an attempt to break this level and reduce quotes may follow. Otherwise, a scenario with local growth and achieving the base correction level of 38.2% by Fibonacci around 139 is possible.
 
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AUDUSD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) formed, a downward correction formed as the second wave (2), and the third wave (3) develops, within which the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) forms. Now, the wave (iii) of i has ended, a local correction has formed as the wave (iv) of i, and the wave (v) of i is forming. 
 
If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will grow to the area of 0.7200–0.7464. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6860.
 
audusd.png
 
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USDCAD Achieves Clear Gains

The USDCAD pair rallied upwards yesterday to breach 1.2420 and touch the key resistance 1.3500, noticing that the price finds difficulty to surpass this level, accompanied by witnessing negative signals through stochastic, which supports the chances of bouncing bearishly to resume the bearish trend, which targets 1.3415 followed by 1.3350 levels as next negative stations. 

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Therefore, we expect to witness bearish bias in the upcoming sessions unless the price managed to breach 1.3500 and hold with a daily close above it. The expected trading range for today is between 1.3415 support and 1.3560 resistance.
 

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USDCHF Achieves the Negative Targets

The USDCHF pair succeeded to achieve our suggested negative targets, as it reached 0.9100 level, showing some temporary bullish bias affected by stochastic positivity, waiting to resume the main bearish trend that moves within the bearish channel that appears on the chart, to achieve negative targets that extend to 0.9020.

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Therefore, the bearish trend scenario will remain valid unless the price rallied to breach 0.9215 followed by 0.9275 levels and hold above them. The expected trading range for today is between 0.9080 support and 0.9215 resistance.
 

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